I just started daytrading. It's been more addictive than anything I've ever experienced. But on the plus side, it's gotten me in tune with the world financial news.
My conclusion is that no one knows shit. There's just no such thing as true "knowledge" in this situation. Sure, some theories will happen to be correct because all possible outcomes are predicted by somebody, but in reality, you don't know what's going to happen. It's a lot like fantasy football - you can predict all you want, but there's a reason they play the games, and weird shit happens in the games.
To that end, I want to encourage people to take an interest in the markets. It may seem like gambling, but be assured that no one knows anything more than you do. It'll either go up, or go down, so it's a 50/50 proposition. And if you get educated, you'll beat the odds. Cheers!
-HK
Friday, October 10, 2008
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
American Money
1. Reading the WSJ these days is unsettling. What do you do when even banks are losing money? That's actually the one and only thing that banks are asked to do - not lose our money.
I personally say we let Fannie and Freddie fail. And let the banks fail too. Let the market correct itself, let predatory lenders feed on each other's diminishing reserves until they have to start lending with some semblance of standards, and for God's sake don't make taxpayers save these incompetent institutions.
2. NASA - why do we still have it? I just looked up the budget - $17 billion for 2009, add another billion a year for the next seven or so. What has NASA done for America ever? As far as I can tell, we won a pissing contest and some bragging rights against the USSR by getting to a worthless rock first, and we got velcro. Can't we at least pause NASA for about a decade?
3. Iraq - $10 billion a month cost should be the only justification we need for getting out.
I personally say we let Fannie and Freddie fail. And let the banks fail too. Let the market correct itself, let predatory lenders feed on each other's diminishing reserves until they have to start lending with some semblance of standards, and for God's sake don't make taxpayers save these incompetent institutions.
2. NASA - why do we still have it? I just looked up the budget - $17 billion for 2009, add another billion a year for the next seven or so. What has NASA done for America ever? As far as I can tell, we won a pissing contest and some bragging rights against the USSR by getting to a worthless rock first, and we got velcro. Can't we at least pause NASA for about a decade?
3. Iraq - $10 billion a month cost should be the only justification we need for getting out.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Things I Don't Believe in
And I mean don't believe in a tooth fairy type of way.
Metabolism
I'll allow for the possibility that different people can eat different amounts and have different body types, but I don't get the idea of "boosting" one's metabolism at all. I find especially amusing the idea that you can lose weight by "boosting" your metabolism by eating more often. I think this is all part of the health/food industry's grand plan to keep us trapped in a mobius strip of cyclical diets, exercises and fads, but that's a conspiracy theory for another day.
The Runner's High
I'm by no means a runner, but I run, and I've been running a lot more frequently lately. At no point did I ever feel a high of any sorts, in running lengths ranging from 2 to 5.5 miles. Not once. There have been times when I felt terrible, and I felt a little less terrible later. Maybe that's the "high?"
The Economy
I give up. I don't understand it. How does anyone ever make money? Far as I can tell, banks, builders, speculators, and their brethren are pretty much just borrowing against the future, through a currency that has no concrete value, and simply charging each others fees along to way to generate temporary gains.
The Softball Pitch
There are some cute women's softball players on tv lately, but I can't get over that pitch. It has to be one of the most unattractive motions the female body is capable of. Why can't they have a slow wind up that accelerates like a baseball pitch? Also, the motion reminds me of how a crazy trashy violence-prone woman would practice an uppercut to the nuts.
Metabolism
I'll allow for the possibility that different people can eat different amounts and have different body types, but I don't get the idea of "boosting" one's metabolism at all. I find especially amusing the idea that you can lose weight by "boosting" your metabolism by eating more often. I think this is all part of the health/food industry's grand plan to keep us trapped in a mobius strip of cyclical diets, exercises and fads, but that's a conspiracy theory for another day.
The Runner's High
I'm by no means a runner, but I run, and I've been running a lot more frequently lately. At no point did I ever feel a high of any sorts, in running lengths ranging from 2 to 5.5 miles. Not once. There have been times when I felt terrible, and I felt a little less terrible later. Maybe that's the "high?"
The Economy
I give up. I don't understand it. How does anyone ever make money? Far as I can tell, banks, builders, speculators, and their brethren are pretty much just borrowing against the future, through a currency that has no concrete value, and simply charging each others fees along to way to generate temporary gains.
The Softball Pitch
There are some cute women's softball players on tv lately, but I can't get over that pitch. It has to be one of the most unattractive motions the female body is capable of. Why can't they have a slow wind up that accelerates like a baseball pitch? Also, the motion reminds me of how a crazy trashy violence-prone woman would practice an uppercut to the nuts.
Saturday, July 5, 2008
Quick Hits
Airplanes
Is there any more excruciatingly interminable period of time than the time between an airplane has landed, and it "taxis" to its gate? I swear it takes like fifteen minutes every single time. Then, as soon as the plane stops and the seatbelt sign goes off, everyone gets up!! Despite the fact that it'll be another 8-10 minutes before anyone actually gets off the damn plane. Really dampens the thrill of flying. On a related note, I wonder if there are people who fly so often that the thought of death doesn't occur to them every time they fly. It at least occurs to me every single time. I think it'd be strange not for the thought to occur.
Sports
As boxing is sputtering, tennis is blooming. Floyd "retired" again, Oscar's about as relevant as the Harlem Globetrotters, and Roy Jones Jr. is officially a minor league cash cow. But man, how amazing is Rafa's improvement on grass and his upcoming showdown with Federer? The way he blitzed Roger in Paris has everyone saying Federer's reign is over, but I'm just hoping for a killer final. Unlike the slapfest that was Roland Garros.
Obama
Does anyone dislike him? Anyone that isn't horsing around wearing white sheets that is. I bet even McCain secretly wants to vote for him.
Is there any more excruciatingly interminable period of time than the time between an airplane has landed, and it "taxis" to its gate? I swear it takes like fifteen minutes every single time. Then, as soon as the plane stops and the seatbelt sign goes off, everyone gets up!! Despite the fact that it'll be another 8-10 minutes before anyone actually gets off the damn plane. Really dampens the thrill of flying. On a related note, I wonder if there are people who fly so often that the thought of death doesn't occur to them every time they fly. It at least occurs to me every single time. I think it'd be strange not for the thought to occur.
Sports
As boxing is sputtering, tennis is blooming. Floyd "retired" again, Oscar's about as relevant as the Harlem Globetrotters, and Roy Jones Jr. is officially a minor league cash cow. But man, how amazing is Rafa's improvement on grass and his upcoming showdown with Federer? The way he blitzed Roger in Paris has everyone saying Federer's reign is over, but I'm just hoping for a killer final. Unlike the slapfest that was Roland Garros.
Obama
Does anyone dislike him? Anyone that isn't horsing around wearing white sheets that is. I bet even McCain secretly wants to vote for him.
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Bikram Yoga, part 1
I started doing yoga back in February when I joined this great new gym at the Chase called Sante. Love that it's basically a gym named "Cheers!" Also, the decor makes it feel like a well lit nightclub, and I can watch Bill O'Reilly on the individual TV's on all the cardio equipment.
Before I knew what yoga really was, I thought it was one of those trendy, useless exercise fads. Also, I thought it looked stupid. Actually I still think a lot of the poses look pretty dumb, but now that I've experienced yoga's calming influence on my life, I'm a big fan.
I also like saunas. So when I heard that this thing called bikram yoga was yoga in a sauna, I was intrigued. I went for the first time last Friday. Surely it couldn't hurt right?
It was a 90 minute class with strict rules - no talking, no leaving, no looking around, no drinking water until you're told, and absolutely no fun. The first thing I noticed was the smell - the studio had carpet flooring onto which countless people had no doubt poured their toxin-sweat. The second thing I noticed was that what minor happiness I may have derived from the presence of a few attractive, scantily clad women was more than undermined by the number of overweight sixty-year old men wearing only speedos. To call it a visual minefield would be an understatement. It actually reminded me of the feeling I had when I was eight, loved fried rice, but was disgusted by peas, and had to pick out all of the peas in my fried rice before I could eat it.
Finally, I couldn't help but notice a feeling of impending doom. Everyone seemed to be awaiting execution, or at least a minor Guantanamo session. This is when I remembered Ross once telling me "Oh yeah, and you're not supposed to drink the night before bikram."
10 minutes in - feeling pretty good.
20 minutes in - sweating more than I expected, but not terrible so far. A bit concerned it still smelled as bad as it did.
30 minutes in - disaster. Within a matter of seconds, dizziness and nausea hit me like that unnecessary pre-last call shot of tequila at 2:45 am. I sat down immediately, waiting for the unpleasantness to pass. It didn't.
I spent the last sixty minutes of class flat on my back, involuntarily twitching and nauseous in what I imagine heroine withdrawal feels like. I only moved (voluntarily) when the water breaks were called, and it was all I could do to keep myself from crawling out of that room. Also, the two Hardees sausage egg and cheese croissants I had for breakfast seemed to be auditioning for a part in the next season of Prisonbreak. Finally, I couldn't even take deep breaths because the rancid smell of the studio made me want to throw up even more. This was not one of my finer hours...
Before I knew what yoga really was, I thought it was one of those trendy, useless exercise fads. Also, I thought it looked stupid. Actually I still think a lot of the poses look pretty dumb, but now that I've experienced yoga's calming influence on my life, I'm a big fan.
I also like saunas. So when I heard that this thing called bikram yoga was yoga in a sauna, I was intrigued. I went for the first time last Friday. Surely it couldn't hurt right?
It was a 90 minute class with strict rules - no talking, no leaving, no looking around, no drinking water until you're told, and absolutely no fun. The first thing I noticed was the smell - the studio had carpet flooring onto which countless people had no doubt poured their toxin-sweat. The second thing I noticed was that what minor happiness I may have derived from the presence of a few attractive, scantily clad women was more than undermined by the number of overweight sixty-year old men wearing only speedos. To call it a visual minefield would be an understatement. It actually reminded me of the feeling I had when I was eight, loved fried rice, but was disgusted by peas, and had to pick out all of the peas in my fried rice before I could eat it.
Finally, I couldn't help but notice a feeling of impending doom. Everyone seemed to be awaiting execution, or at least a minor Guantanamo session. This is when I remembered Ross once telling me "Oh yeah, and you're not supposed to drink the night before bikram."
10 minutes in - feeling pretty good.
20 minutes in - sweating more than I expected, but not terrible so far. A bit concerned it still smelled as bad as it did.
30 minutes in - disaster. Within a matter of seconds, dizziness and nausea hit me like that unnecessary pre-last call shot of tequila at 2:45 am. I sat down immediately, waiting for the unpleasantness to pass. It didn't.
I spent the last sixty minutes of class flat on my back, involuntarily twitching and nauseous in what I imagine heroine withdrawal feels like. I only moved (voluntarily) when the water breaks were called, and it was all I could do to keep myself from crawling out of that room. Also, the two Hardees sausage egg and cheese croissants I had for breakfast seemed to be auditioning for a part in the next season of Prisonbreak. Finally, I couldn't even take deep breaths because the rancid smell of the studio made me want to throw up even more. This was not one of my finer hours...
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Music I Like Right Now
I've been listening to a pretty diverse mix of music lately, not all of it new releases - here's what's been shakin my iPod.
Kaskade - Strobelight Seduction
Categorized in iTunes under dance - hard to imagine anyone dancing to anything this chilled out though. I've liked Kaskade's last two albums as soon as I put them on. Their first album had "Steppin Out" which is one of my all time favorite techno songs. Not exactly sure who they are or the composition of the group, or if it's actually a DJ who gets singers. Pretty sure there used to be a guy singer who doesn't seem to be on this one. Great late night chillout music
Collie Budz - Collie Budz
Stumbled across this guy on an old friend's myspace page. Don't think he was very commercially successful, and I don't usually seek out reggae music, but I love this guy's tunes. Favorites - "Blind to you," "Movin' On," "Tomorrow's Another Day," and "What a Feeling." Actually I like the entire album. Maybe just because it's been so long since I've listened to reggae.
Three Six Mafia - When the Smoke Clears
If there was ever rap that was so bad it's good, it's Soulja Boy, but before Soulja Boy there was Three Six Mafia. The beats and lyrics are so generic, monotone and horrible that they're unbelievably addictive. I can't stop cracking up when I'm listening to them. And I can't stop listening to them. Reminds me of movie theatre popcorn - you know it's bad quality, terrible for your health, and even starts giving you a headache before you've finished even a quarter of the tub, but you keep on reaching for more.
The Roots - Rising Down
They don't miss often. I think that Birthday Girl song is hilarious, but I guess it didn't review well. I like the instrumentals on this album better than some previous albums, and it's nice that their lyrics are always interesting to listen to when I happen to pay attention to lyrics.
Phoenix - Alphabetical
This one's from back in 2004 but I just discovered it. Originally heard of these guys on a compilation disc by Erlend Oye in a track called "If I ever feel better." Their more recent album got better reviewed but I like the more laid back tracks in this one - favorites include "If it's not with you," "Everything is Everything," and "I'm an Actor."
Chris Brown - Exclusive
I haven't listened to this album for very long and I have a hunch I'll wear it out quick, but I really like it for the moment. I liked that "Kiss Kiss" single when it first came out, I like "Damage," and the song "Down" feat. Kanye West. Few other songs I like but I don't know all the names.
Jamie Lidell - Jim
Reminds me of Al Green. You would NOT BELIEVE what this guy looks like if you heard him sing first, then looked up a video. Then again, those Brits seem to have a knack for really "getting" what makes soul music work, and this guy takes it even further than Joss Stone in that respect. Think Robin Thicke, but more organic, live band backup.
Kaskade - Strobelight Seduction
Categorized in iTunes under dance - hard to imagine anyone dancing to anything this chilled out though. I've liked Kaskade's last two albums as soon as I put them on. Their first album had "Steppin Out" which is one of my all time favorite techno songs. Not exactly sure who they are or the composition of the group, or if it's actually a DJ who gets singers. Pretty sure there used to be a guy singer who doesn't seem to be on this one. Great late night chillout music
Collie Budz - Collie Budz
Stumbled across this guy on an old friend's myspace page. Don't think he was very commercially successful, and I don't usually seek out reggae music, but I love this guy's tunes. Favorites - "Blind to you," "Movin' On," "Tomorrow's Another Day," and "What a Feeling." Actually I like the entire album. Maybe just because it's been so long since I've listened to reggae.
Three Six Mafia - When the Smoke Clears
If there was ever rap that was so bad it's good, it's Soulja Boy, but before Soulja Boy there was Three Six Mafia. The beats and lyrics are so generic, monotone and horrible that they're unbelievably addictive. I can't stop cracking up when I'm listening to them. And I can't stop listening to them. Reminds me of movie theatre popcorn - you know it's bad quality, terrible for your health, and even starts giving you a headache before you've finished even a quarter of the tub, but you keep on reaching for more.
The Roots - Rising Down
They don't miss often. I think that Birthday Girl song is hilarious, but I guess it didn't review well. I like the instrumentals on this album better than some previous albums, and it's nice that their lyrics are always interesting to listen to when I happen to pay attention to lyrics.
Phoenix - Alphabetical
This one's from back in 2004 but I just discovered it. Originally heard of these guys on a compilation disc by Erlend Oye in a track called "If I ever feel better." Their more recent album got better reviewed but I like the more laid back tracks in this one - favorites include "If it's not with you," "Everything is Everything," and "I'm an Actor."
Chris Brown - Exclusive
I haven't listened to this album for very long and I have a hunch I'll wear it out quick, but I really like it for the moment. I liked that "Kiss Kiss" single when it first came out, I like "Damage," and the song "Down" feat. Kanye West. Few other songs I like but I don't know all the names.
Jamie Lidell - Jim
Reminds me of Al Green. You would NOT BELIEVE what this guy looks like if you heard him sing first, then looked up a video. Then again, those Brits seem to have a knack for really "getting" what makes soul music work, and this guy takes it even further than Joss Stone in that respect. Think Robin Thicke, but more organic, live band backup.
Monday, May 19, 2008
Truth, Reality, and Heisenberg
Confidences are an interesting thing. Trust seems to be of paramount importance in a lot of contexts - business partnerships, romantic relationships, privileged relationships (i.e. client-lawyer), etc. But there also seems to be an inherent flaw in whether trust should exist in those contexts. People tend to be selfish, and unless the relationship is a truly symbiotic win-win situation for both parties, individuals will choose themselves at the expense of their relations. A parent's relationship with his or her child is probably the most frequent exception to the general rule, but even that one hardly sports a perfect batting average.
How we as a species deal with this problem of trust is interesting - the most "rational" methods seem to be independent research, historical statistics, and maybe third-party opinions. To illustrate,
A 70-year old billionaire is considering marrying Anna Nicole Smith without a prenup. He's convinced she's genuinely in love with him. His family, who at least should care more about his interests, tells him he's being foolish. What do billionaires tend to do? Look Anna in the eye, ask her if she loves him, and side with his gut.
Billionaire asks his lawyer for his advice - lawyer has a duty to tell him to get the damn prenup. But lawyers thinks about what he would get paid for writing a standard-form prenup, versus the possibilities of fees in a messy divorce (forgetting for the purpose of the analogy, the malpractice suit he should be hit with for doing this). How is billionaire supposed to trust his counsel?
With all the stress of the situation, billionaire goes to his psychiatrist for help and asks him for his best course of action. He's prescribed a veritable army of pills from prozac, to celexa, to zoloft. All of course, written by the doctor with a Zoloft pen on a Zoloft notepad. How do you trust your source if they have a personal stake in your course of action?
This reminded me of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle from high school physics (chemistry?) Best I can remember, it's the idea that you can never know exactly where an electron is, because you have to see it to be able to know its location, but even shining the light necessary to see the electron changes its position. As a teenager, the elegance of this theory was lost on me.
By even asking people questions, we change them just a little bit, and give away knowledge about our own positions. Even though we know this intuitively, why do we continue to rely on asking a source that is inherently unreliable for important information?
My best guess is that despite all of the historical and sensory information we have available to us, we're primarily visual and emotional creatures. We rely on what we see more than anything else we sense, and we rely on what we feel rather than what we know.
Certainly not advocating cynicism, paranoia, or conspiracy theories, but it's one more thing to think about. Like Omar said, echoing Socrates, "The more you know, the more you don't know."
How we as a species deal with this problem of trust is interesting - the most "rational" methods seem to be independent research, historical statistics, and maybe third-party opinions. To illustrate,
A 70-year old billionaire is considering marrying Anna Nicole Smith without a prenup. He's convinced she's genuinely in love with him. His family, who at least should care more about his interests, tells him he's being foolish. What do billionaires tend to do? Look Anna in the eye, ask her if she loves him, and side with his gut.
Billionaire asks his lawyer for his advice - lawyer has a duty to tell him to get the damn prenup. But lawyers thinks about what he would get paid for writing a standard-form prenup, versus the possibilities of fees in a messy divorce (forgetting for the purpose of the analogy, the malpractice suit he should be hit with for doing this). How is billionaire supposed to trust his counsel?
With all the stress of the situation, billionaire goes to his psychiatrist for help and asks him for his best course of action. He's prescribed a veritable army of pills from prozac, to celexa, to zoloft. All of course, written by the doctor with a Zoloft pen on a Zoloft notepad. How do you trust your source if they have a personal stake in your course of action?
This reminded me of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle from high school physics (chemistry?) Best I can remember, it's the idea that you can never know exactly where an electron is, because you have to see it to be able to know its location, but even shining the light necessary to see the electron changes its position. As a teenager, the elegance of this theory was lost on me.
By even asking people questions, we change them just a little bit, and give away knowledge about our own positions. Even though we know this intuitively, why do we continue to rely on asking a source that is inherently unreliable for important information?
My best guess is that despite all of the historical and sensory information we have available to us, we're primarily visual and emotional creatures. We rely on what we see more than anything else we sense, and we rely on what we feel rather than what we know.
Certainly not advocating cynicism, paranoia, or conspiracy theories, but it's one more thing to think about. Like Omar said, echoing Socrates, "The more you know, the more you don't know."
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